PODCAST: How holiday shopping is shifting

James Cook: Well, it's that time of year. Once again, holiday shopping is in full swing. Retailers are gearing up for the busiest selling season of the year. Shoppers are looking to complete their gift lists, but holiday shopping is changing.

Don Ziss: You used to associate the holidays with, the waiting and the long lines and getting through and the mad rush of what Black Friday is and it really has changed substantially, during this period of time. They're doing the research ahead of time. They know what they're doing. They've got a purpose. A lot of times you don't see the mulling around. It's very, target and specific.

James Cook: That's Don Ziss. Don is the general manager of Manhattan Village in Manhattan Beach, California. On this episode of Trends and Insights, Don is going to join us to talk holiday shopping. Plus, we've got Keisha Virtue. She is a retail researcher at JLL and is here to talk about the findings from her new annual holiday shopper survey. So whether you're a mall enthusiast or an online shopping pro, stick around to find out how your holiday shopping habits compare with what our experts are seeing.

This is trends and insights. The future of commercial real estate. My name is James Cook, and I am a researcher for JLL.

James Cook: For those that aren't familiar, tell us a little bit about Manhattan village.

Don Ziss: Yeah. Manhattan Village is a really unique property. It's consists of about two dozen buildings built in the early eighties and for its time it was very forward thinking cause it was a true mixed use property designed when I don't think a lot of those concepts were taking place at that time.

You have an interior mall building that holds about 25 retailers. We've since added a lifestyle. Section of the property you have a daily need section of the property with the grocery store and the drug store and the financial institutions and then we also have medical office, . And in this environment, we're working on bringing in office tenants for 2025. so it is a true mixed use property.

James Cook: How does Manhattan Village get ready for the holidays?

Don Ziss: It's interesting because, this year Thanksgiving's a little later. We're seeing a condensed shopping period, which is very interesting. People are already coming out early, but our preparation has been well underway. We have a pretty complex set of decor installation because we're on a 44 acre property. You want to really try to spread the cheer around. And we really want it to feel cohesive as the most wonderful time of the year.

There is a street called cedar way that kind of. Runs North, South, and it's lined with palm trees they're clean palms. They're very nice. Didn't know there was so many different types of palm trees until I moved to California. Knowing that we were bringing in. A lot of experiential food, other things that we're fostering a nighttime environment . lit up those palm trees at our key entrance. With a very elaborate lighting system that has several different patterns, all of the trees along cedar way are candy canes right now with red and white. And with a flashy pattern with them, and it really creates a nice ambience.

James Cook: Of the things that you mentioned was that shoppers seem to be coming earlier this year. Keisha, your survey touched on that. Don't you have some data around when people are shopping this year?

Keisha Virtue: For sure. First of all, I just want to say, Don, I'm in South Florida, so I definitely resonate with a palm trees lit up at Christmas. It's a very special thing. But yes, we did notice that this year shoppers are getting in. Even earlier than usual especially high income shoppers. Based on what I see in my survey. It looks like over a little over 70 percent have probably already started shopping.

James Cook: What's the percentage breakdown of people doing holiday shopping online versus in store?

Keisha Virtue: Interesting you ask. It depends on if we're talking about exclusively or if it's just one of the things that they're doing. Because we did find that even though maybe about 70 percent or so plan to shop online, it's not their only channel. They're definitely going to be shopping across channels.

And if you look at those who are only going to be shopping exclusively online for home delivery, it's only about 12. 8%. Almost 90 percent of shoppers are going to interact with the store in some way, whether they're heading to the mall or a really fun mixed use like Manhattan Village or even going to do curbside pickup or buying online and picking up in store.

So there's definitely a very strong store component amongst all of this.

We did find that amongst the people we surveyed that Santa shoppers in particular do plan to spend , about 400 more per person, than the average shopper. It's a really big deal to draw those shoppers in who are attracted to those really spectacular Santa events.

Don Ziss: Yeah, that's a tremendous statistic and one I didn't know. So thanks for sharing that.

James Cook: if they come to see Santa they're going to spend on average 400 more. Wow. I wonder why that is. They're just really in the spirit.

Keisha Virtue: I think there are a couple intersections here. One is that it's mainly the millennials who have young kids, I mean based on the age range, 30 years to 44. So we have that group and they're the ones spending the most money, as far as our survey is concerned anyway. And then the Santa shoppers are going to spend longer at the center and those who spend longer tend to spend more money as well. So it's definitely a correlation.

James Cook: when people come holiday shopping, do they expect to have a meal while they're there.

Don Ziss: Yeah, food is a critical component of our operation year round, it takes an interesting a facet during the holidays, because it allows people to. Recharge into to kind of regroup, you know, it's that meeting point where, hey, if you're with a family and you split off you meet back up for lunch kind of thing, or, hey, my feet are getting to me. let's sit down and enjoy ourselves for a little bit before we get back at it again.

I see a lot of that happening and at our property, you have a range of options. You have. The kind of the quick service the fast, casual stuff, you've got more of the sit down family and then. 1 thing that we didn't have prior to our redevelopment from a few years ago is really fine dining.

And so we've got or fine dining restaurants on the property. And we'll have a 5th, 1 in 2025. And the sense that I get from them is they love. The holiday parties,

some of our fine dining establishments have private dining rooms and there's even been in some instances where the whole restaurants been rented out for an evening. And so the restaurants really like this, because it tends to be a higher dollar per spend. And they can really secure loyalty that way.

I've talked to some restaurants. That will actually have a designated person set up to handle these large parties because they want to make it as simple as possible for that person. You know how it can be say, you have 2 dozen people getting together for event planning. That can be stressful. You got a lot of different opinions, a lot of different needs and requirements.

And if someone can really help that process and make it relatively easy, then they feel like loyalty is, going to be earned that way. I can tell you that the fine dining restaurants are pretty much already booked up for the rest of the holiday season.

James Cook: Keisha, what did your research have to say about food and the holidays?

Keisha Virtue: It's central for sure. As Don said, it's definitely the fuel that keeps people going through the shopping center. We found that 90 percent of our shoppers plan to stop and get something to eat or to drink. Most people get something to drink for sure, whether they're buying a coffee or a juice or something.

They'll get a snack. Some of course will do fast food and then. maybe about a third will do fast casual and then moving into full service it's about 20 percent. So everybody's definitely, almost everybody is definitely going to be eating something to keep them going. And of course the longer shoppers plan to spend the more likely it is that they're gonna stop in and get something to keep them fueled up and ready to go get those lists It's crossed off.

James Cook: How big a role does social media play in sort of the marketing of the center? I'm sure people are posting constantly on Instagram as they're shopping. What's your take on that?

Don Ziss: When it's done right, it can be very effective. And I'll give you a recent example. We had last month our 1st, annual Manhattan beach food and wine festival. And it was a partnership with another company. And we brought in 50 different chefs from largely the, Southern California area, but some came from New York or San Francisco or elsewhere in California as well.

And some of them had Michelin star ratings , to their background. And in addition to that, you had a wine and spirits and you paid one price. You got to try as much food and drink as you wanted. And it was a tremendous success. And I didn't really understand how successful it was going to be until I saw everyone talking about it after the event.

when my social media just absolutely blew up with it, people talking about it. It's like the night of the year. This has to come back There was so much buzz being generated after it. That, we're looking at already making plans for next year.

And that one was a really good reminder to me on the impacts of social media and what it can do.

James Cook: That's such a cool story. And I need to find out, I need to plan ahead and come visit.

Don Ziss: I’ll let you know the dates in 2025. Yeah. Our asset manager for the property ownership blew up from Atlanta for that event. And and she was just blown away and I was like, it's definitely a highlight of our year. So it was pretty cool.

James Cook: That's awesome. So shopping centers use social media for marketing quite a bit. That was a great example. Keisha, did you do any research into how shoppers use social media maybe to inform themselves on what they're going to buy for the holidays?

Keisha Virtue: We definitely did, and we found that a little 80 percent of shoppers do plan to use social media to help them make decisions on what to buy holiday shopping inspiration.

We found that the meta channels, whether we're talking about Instagram or Facebook, were top of course, and then, TikTok and um, Some of the other apps as well, Pinterest actually factored in quite a bit, even with younger shoppers, which was surprising.

Of course, we found that younger shoppers were much more likely to engage with social media than, say, boomers but overall, it's still definitely a really huge tool in getting shoppers to know what they want to get beforehand or get some ideas of how they're going to shop when they get there.

James Cook: Yeah. It's interesting to see has over the years, which social media channels get bigger and, at one point it was like a lot of Snapchat and now it's more Instagram and, Tik TOK and who knows 10 years down the road, but certainly whatever it is, it'll be some kind of social media tool would probably be AI powered though, right?

What do you think 10 years down the road? It'll be some AI. Thing that'll tell us what to buy. Okay. Anyway now I'm going off track.

Keisha Virtue: It might be like some sort of Minority Report situation where they're very specific according to your,

James Cook: Can use clairvoyance to predict what we're going to buy in the future. Okay. Don, let me ask you this. Do you expect? what you do at Manhattan village to significantly change in the future, sort of what's your outlook.

Don Ziss: Shopping centers will continue to diversify their offerings. And I think that's a really good thing. I think it was a good problem to have moving away from the days of the shopping centers that were just really lots and lots of apparel stores and some food to what it is now. I think there's a lot more choice where people can do.

Really, all of the key things they need to do away from home, all essentially in one place. You can work, you can get your daily needs, you can have your entertainment, you can do your shopping, and hey, maybe even in some circumstances, you're living in the same proximity, right? So it's all interconnected and that trend is probably going to continue to emerge, even though I think it's well on its way.

James Cook: Didn't you all just complete a renovation pretty recently, right?

Don Ziss: Yeah I, I completely subscribe to that philosophy. I think if you're not evolving, you're running into problems. So we started. The early phases of the redevelopment, and at the end of 2017, that's right. When I came on board to the property, and we finished up towards the end of 2022, it got extended out because we went right through the middle of the pandemic during that period of time.

But we're all complete now, so we've completed phases 1 and phase 2 and then we have 46, 000 square foot box on the corner of the property that used to be occupied by fries, which was always part of a redevelopment plan as phase 3 that we're currently. Doing pre development work on now.

James Cook: So you're still figuring out what you're going to do. With that box.

Don Ziss: Yeah, I think we've got some good ideas, but I think you got to secure your entitlements, work with the cities, work with the community, that kind of thing. And it takes time. This is a community that they like the way things are. They're very proud of their community. So they don't really embrace a ton of change quickly.

But it's definitely coming along. And so I'm really excited to to see how that turns out here in the near future.

James Cook: So Keisha, after completing your annual holiday shopper survey research, what's your advice for shopping centers? What should they take away from this?

Keisha Virtue: Excellent question. Don has hit so many other points that we put in the addendum to the report, but basically engaging shoppers with experiences is super important because we want to get them to increase their dwell time to really hit the, the touchy feely part of themselves and really just want to be there.

I want to spend time, want to spend money. And so getting them in with experiences is really important. Of course, Santa is very central to getting, especially shoppers with kids in and engaged and spending more time and more money. Again, with the social media, it's really important. We did find that those who spend longer generally spend more money, but we did find a little bit of an exception when it comes to gifts.

Those who are coming in for gift shopping tend to spend. Less time on average, so I'm thinking they're doing some research beforehand, and that's where social media really plays a big role. Getting them ideas ahead of time, getting them to the right stores and the right center so they know exactly what they want to do.

Get in and get out and spend that money. How they see fit. I think that those are the big things. And of course, food and beverage, making sure they stay fueled so they don't feel like they need to leave in order to refresh themselves. . They can get refreshed right there and keep on going.

So I think those are the big points, but it looks like Manhattan Village is hitting it out of the park. So I think it's a great example and it's been really interesting to hear the very specific details and the local flavor, Don, that you guys are adding to it.

Don Ziss: Thank you. Yeah, and for me, for us just. Trying to make it frictionless as possible, parking can always be easier. We have 52 charges on the property from Tesla to charge point to there's a heavy component of either electric or hybrid users in this market.

And charging is one of those also important things, but just making the experience, a lot of fun. I remember back in the days you used to associate the holidays with , the waiting and the long lines and getting through and the mad rush of what Black Friday is.

And it really has changed substantially, during this period of time. And I think we're on the right track with it in a lot of ways. We can also do a lot more. But, we're getting it. And we're hearing what shoppers are doing. And to Keisha's point, they're doing the research ahead of time.

They know what they're doing. They've got a purpose. A lot of times you don't see the mulling around. It's very, target and specific. Thanks And so let's help them check that box and come out feeling like a winner.

Keisha Virtue: Do you find that curbside pickup or online ordering an in store pickup is, increasing in any way as we approach the holidays or even over the years?

Don Ziss: Yeah, I'm seeing certain retailers certainly embracing the click and collect and we actually have certain areas on the property where we think we can do it effectively So we have added Not only just during the holidays, which we'll have some For some specific retailers, but we have some kind of sprinkled throughout the property throughout I think click and collect is here to stay.

And it's 1 that I like to see it alleviates some of those that experience set friction. And so I think that is a good. Option for every shopping center to have.

Keisha Virtue: That's excellent. That's definitely one of the things we took away from our survey too, that we saw almost double what it was last year for those things. So I think it's really crucial to make sure we offer that to consumers.

James Cook: So you Keisha, you're saying you saw the amount of people who said they were going to do click and collect double this year over last year.

Keisha Virtue: Yes, for curbside pickup, it was almost double and for buy online pickup in store, it was nine percentage points higher than last year. So definitely some big increases.

James Cook: In your research, we talk about the physical, places that people go to shop. What are the top destinations? If people are going to go out and shop for the holidays, what are the top places that they're going?

Keisha Virtue: First of all, we found that we tend to ask if they're going to shop online and for home delivery, we ask if they're going to shop in an enclosed mall or just a mall open air shopping center. And of course the click and collect options and we found that the physical. Options are definitely increasing, but mall saw the biggest increase and the highest engagement with 18 percentage points higher than last year as far as the number of shoppers.

Over half of shoppers and we did find also that department stores for the 1st time in many years clocked up as number one as far as the kinds of retail stores that shoppers do plan to shop at this year. So department stores, clothing and accessories would be number two, and mass merchandisers, which usually are number one, went down to the third place.

So we're definitely seeing a little bit more of the softer feel, stores getting some more love this year for sure.

James Cook: Don, Keisha, thank you so much for joining me for our holiday chat. it's been great. And I think based on talking to both of you I feel like the retail sales numbers when they come out in January, they're going to be pretty good.

Don Ziss: You always have a feeling right before the holidays and the feeling is good right now. I think there's a lot of energy buildup and and I think we're already starting to see it. So hopefully the momentum continues through the rest of the shopping season.

Keisha Virtue: I agree.

James Cook: Awesome.

Keisha Virtue: Pleasure. Take care.

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This episode of trends and insights was produced by Bianca Montes. Our theme music was written and performed by Joel Karachi.